In the days following news of Yakima County’s first confirmed COVID-19 cases, residents emptied grocery stores to stock fridges and pantries for several weeks at home.
That created a spike in demand for pantry staples, including Washington apples.
For the week starting March 16, nearly 3.9 million 40-pound boxes of apples shipped to retailers domestically and worldwide, according to figures from the Washington State Tree Fruit Association.
That’s well above the weekly average so far for the 2019-2020 crop, which is at 2.59 million boxes.
With every peak, there is a valley — and it came fast: Just two weeks after that record weekly shipment, during the week starting March 30, the number of boxes dropped 46% to 2.1 million.
“Our industry is used to having predictable shipments over the course of the season,” said Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association. “It’s stressful and difficult to manage (large swings), both for us and the retailer.”
Shipments have increased in the last few weeks and now are back to average levels. For the week starting April 20, 2.65 million boxes were shipped.
With agriculture an essential industry under the state’s stay-at-home order, growers and packers have continued with the production and shipment of cherries, pears and apples. Still, the industry has had to contend with drastic changes by consumers and retailers in response to the coronavirus.
Food sampling, a core promotional strategy, is now prohibited in most, if not all, stores. Consumers are spacing out in-person trips to the store or turning to pickup and delivery.
That’s created a lot of uncertainty among growers nervous about their returns.
“For me, I guess, I have trepidation on just how the coronavirus is going to affect demand,” said Morgan Rowe, a Naches-based cherry and apple grower.
Tree fruit has fared better than other agricultural commodities, since most fresh fruit is sold in grocery stores rather than for restaurant and food service, which has experienced significant disruptions due to COVID-19, DeVaney said.
“I think we are still in a good position to sell our crops and have a good cherry season, in particular,” he said. “It’s just the uncertainty factor that leaves a lot of people stressed.”
Here’s why officials are optimistic about cherries: Key export markets include China, South Korea and Vietnam, countries further along in recovering from COVID-19.
Asian airlines have committed to flying commercial and cargo flights to transport cherries to those markets, said B.J. Thurlby, president of Northwest Cherry Growers, which promotes cherries grown in five states, including Washington.
“We were worried about our foreign markets a month ago and trying to figure out if we were going to get any fruit out of the door,” he said. “Talking to people in our key export markets — they’re feeling really good about the cherry season.”
Before the coronavirus, cherry growers in the Yakima Valley and throughout the Northwest were dealing with weather issues. Cold overnight temperatures hit the region in early March. With irrigation water not readily available, growers were less equipped to protect cherries from frost damage.
While frost damage didn’t destroy the crop, it likely will reduce the number of boxes that will be harvested in a few months.
An official estimate wasn’t available last week, but Thurlby said that based on his conversations with growers, he’s anticipating a crop below 20 million 20-pound boxes, which would be the smallest crop the region has seen in several years.
Rowe, the Naches grower, estimates that roughly 10% of his crop had frost damage. He’s heard other growers report much higher percentages.
Still, a smaller crop may be a blessing if coronavirus continues to alter consumer behavior and export activity drastically.
“If we’re going to have a (smaller) crop, this is a good year to have it,” Thurlby said.
California cherries are now being harvested and shipped, which will provide the Northwest cherry industry insight on the impacts of COVID-19.
Thurlby is also watching employment trends. Having a more significant percentage of Americans out of work means more people may not be able to afford basics, let alone items like cherries, which are more of an impulse item.
But Thurlby is seeing encouraging numbers in produce sales. He noted data from Nielsen that produce sales so far in April were 17% higher year-over-year. And what was more encouraging was that strawberries and raspberries were among the top five items.
“Those are substitute items for cherries,” he said.
That means shoppers who are purchasing strawberries and raspberries now are more likely to buy cherries when they become available, he said.
Online shopping
Thurlby took note of another figure, this time from the Produce Marketing Association. That group estimates that nationwide, 40 million people are now shopping online.
Indeed, as health officials are encouraging shoppers to minimize activities outside the home, more people are seeking digital alternatives in everything from school classes to exercise programs.
That’s driven the tree fruit industry to shift more promotions to digital platforms. Thurlby, for one, has been talking to major retailers about what incentives they could give to get cherries featured on a grocery store’s home page or while shoppers are ordering items online.
Most cherries are purchased on impulse when shoppers see the item or sample the product at the store. With stores discouraging idle browsing and not allowing samples, the industry must find other ways to reach consumers.
“We want to make sure cherries are part of that conversation if they go online,” he said.
Those in the pear industry also are shifting strategies online as traditional retail promotions have not been possible under coronavirus.
Shipments for Washington and Oregon pears, domestically and internationally, have declined compared to a year ago, even considering that the crop is smaller. The current season crop is at 16.5 million 44-pound boxes, about 12% smaller than the previous season. Exports as of April 20 were down 16.4% from last year.
Pear Bureau Northwest, which promotes pears grown in Oregon and Washington, has changed its promotions in recent weeks in response to the market.
The organization recently released a video aimed at reminding consumers of pears’ long shelf life to get customers to stock up during future shopping trips.
On its website, consumers now have the option to get new recipes and order ingredients for that recipe via delivery or curbside pickup at a local retailer.
The organization has purchased more online advertising, namely in the form of paid search results. That means when a consumer looks up specific search terms, they’ll get to see a search result leading to an offer to try pears.
Like cherries, pears are more of an impulse purchase, so it’s crucial to replicate that in-person behavior online, said Kevin Moffitt, president of Pear Bureau Northwest.
“The bottom line is we will be doing activities to keep pears in front of consumers and keep pears relevant when we can’t reach them … in a store,” he said.
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Tree fruit industry managing changes amid coronavirus, but uncertainty remains - Yakima Herald-Republic
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